In all the times that this writer has ever been involved either observing, analysing or being actively involved in politics, there has never been a more boring, vapid and, frankly, useless federal election campaign than the one that we are bearing witness to right now.
A campaign devoid of any personality, devoid of any energy, and the only consistent headline that we have seen being “gotcha” moment after “gotcha” moment. In the eyes of this writer, this is the state of politics in this country, and it is an indictment on us, as an entire society, that we have allowed it to get to this stage.
Maybe I’m a bit jaded after witnessing what was a very positive campaign in the 2023 NSW Election. A campaign where there was very minimal sniping, both party leaders promoting strong images of quiet competency, and debates where there were genuine discussions around direction and policy. Dom Perrottet and Chris Minns, for all the criticism from some of the more sensationalist sections of the media, demonstrated that it is possible to have a positive campaign without any of the hysteria and it resulted in what was a very reasonable result. NSW Labor leading a minority government while the Liberal-National Coalition lost with a high level of dignity and avoided a landslide.
The same cannot be said for this election, where, for all intents and purposes, Anthony Albanese has demonstrated himself to be a lazy and dithering Prime Minister too focused on making himself relevant with the “yoof” of Australia. A man who should have been a lame-duck Prime Minister after his comprehensive defeat in the Voices to Parliament Referendum. Instead, he will go down as the luckiest Prime Minister in history, for the simple reason that he ended up running against the man that will likely go down as the worst opposition leader that the Liberal-National Coalition has ever put up in its history in Peter Dutton – a gormless, negative leader with the personality of a wet trout.
When we produced our piece introducing the election campaign, the original position was that the most likely outcome was a Labor Minority Government. That position continues to ring true, but the possibility of Labor having majority control has improved significantly, and it is thanks to arguably the worst campaigning that we have ever seen from both parties.
It is often said that Oppositions don’t win elections, but Governments lose elections. In this case, both major parties have demonstrated such a level of ineptness that the Australian Voting Public have given the campaign one collective ‘meh’.
From the high-water mark at the end of February, Peter Dutton needed to ram home the narrative that he could lead Australia through what would be a very challenging period – Trump Influence dominating headlines, Australian Economics in turmoil thanks to Cost-of-Living pressures, and the growing dichotomy of Energy Pricing and Security vs Climate Change. Instead, what the Australian Public got was a man with no direction, no ability to re-connect with voters that the Liberal Party had lost over the last 4 years, and no understanding on issues beyond Law and Order.
If the election pans out as we think it could, it will be the first time since World War 1 that a first-term Government has avoided a net loss in seats at the federal level and it will be thanks to the poor leadership of Peter Dutton.
What is worse is that the stocks after Dutton are very threadbare. While Angus Taylor is the obvious choice, the quality of leadership demonstrated by himself would be seen as a step back for the party. In the eyes of this commentator, the step forward for the party would either be Andrew Hastie or Dan Tehan, depending on whether the latter survives his own election challenges.
But that doesn’t mean that the Labor Party is going well. While Albanese is on track to retain government, the sentiment is that the ALP have failed to impress, with the likelihood that the party’s primary vote will fail to increase. If anything, it could be another small decline in their Primary Vote; breaking the record they set at the last election for their lowest primary vote that the party has ever achieved. It is the belief of this writer that, if the Liberal-National Coalition had put up a better leader for this election campaign, Albanese could well have been dragged into a situation reminiscent of the 2010 election.
In the background, there are concerns about the quality of leadership and the judgement being demonstrated by Albanese, with rumblings of continued hostility between himself and one-time political ally Tania Plibersek, along with the Right of the Labor Party wanting to push head, led by Richard Marles and Jim Chalmers.
With the Greens looking like they have stalled in their progress, the winners appear to be independents and minor party candidates, the big growth being seen from the Teal Independents and One Nation.
For the former, their win has come about from continued disillusion of the Liberal Party moving further to the right, but it hasn’t been without their own problems, with significant missteps throughout the campaign, especially from Monique Ryan and Sophie Scamps, who have demonstrated their genuine lack of political nous in handling a second election. What it has demonstrated, though, is that if you are a favourite of Simon Holmes-a-Court, you can have as much money as you want for your campaign to get you over the line, at the expense of more worthy candidates. If there is any consolation for the teals, the lack of Kylea Tink campaigning has ended up being a blessing in disguise for their movement on the North Shore, given how much bad press she gave the movement during the NSW Redistribution.
So where do we currently stand on the seats in the North Shore and Northern Beaches and what is the surprise that we think could happen?
- Bradfield – This is shaping as a genuine coin-flip. On the current trends, you would think that Nicolette Boele would have a minor lead, but her comments throughout the campaign, especially at the salon, could come back to bite her, while Gisele Kapterian has struggled to resonate, while also dealing with a potential “stalking horse” campaign from Andy Yin
- Bennelong – With the seat sitting as Notionally Liberal, this had become a must-win for the Labor Party and this will also be shaping up as a genuine coin-flip. Jerome Laxale has proven to be an effective MP, but Scott Yung has managed to stay with him and, with the lack of an effective Teal candidate in the seat, this will also become a coin-flip.
- Mackellar – Even with her massive major own goal at the end of the campaign (linking the death of late Sea Eagles Player Keith Titmus to Climate Change), Sophie Scamps is expected to retain Mackellar, with James Brown running a campaign that had less energy and less pull than Jason Falinksi. Hard to believe that to be possible, but what do you expect when you run your campaign out of Great Mackerel Beach?
- Warringah – This won’t even be close, with Zali Steggall expected to win very comfortably over Jaimee Rogers. While Rogers is a candidate more in line with the Northern Beaches and Lower North Shore from the Liberal Party, the damage done by Tony Abbott and Katherine Deves still looms large over the electors, failing to make an indent into Steggall, who has been largely vacant from any major issue discussions.
- Berowra – This is the wild card, and it is believed that none of the available modelling is showing what is really happening in this seat. If it comes down to a 2PP situation (Labor v Liberal), Julian Leeser will win easily. But if Tina Brown does claim 2nd place, then this could well turn into a Bradfield-like situation. Don’t be surprised if it does happen.
All will be decided come Saturday.