Since the May 2025 federal election, public attention has largely focussed on the Liberal Party’s internal struggle over its party direction. Tensions over whether it should remain committed to net zero by 2050 have boiled over into disquiet and rumblings of a leadership challenge.
The resignation of future leadership hopeful Andrew Hastie from the frontbench has further fuelled internal divisions over climate policy. Hastie has been outspoken in his opposition to the party’s net zero commitment, arguing it is a “straitjacket for our economy and our country”. Adding to the political drama, there are reports that a handful of Liberal MPs are considering defecting to the Nationals. These views clash with those of moderate Liberals, who warn that abandoning net zero could further alienate younger and metropolitan voters—many of whom expect meaningful climate action.
This conflict has now spread to the junior Coalition party—the Nationals. While enmity between certain Nationals members has long simmered mostly out of public view, it is now playing free-to-air. The soap opera engulfing the party has seen former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce announce that he will not recontest his seat of New England at the next election, stating in a letter to branch members that his “relationship with the leadership of the Nationals in Canberra has unfortunately, like a sadness in some marriages, irreparably broken down”.
While no formal defection has been announced, Joyce has not ruled out joining another political party, with reports indicating he is in advanced talks with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Senator Hanson has not denied these claims, but has stated that should Joyce choose to join One Nation, she would welcome him. One Nation is also targeting other disaffected MPs who may defect, including Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price who was recently demoted from the shadow ministry, and Llew O’Brien who has threatened to leave the Nationals if the party does not abandon net zero.
With the Nationals currently conducting a review of their climate policies, Joyce has further stated that the party’s previous support for net zero has made his future within the Nationals untenable. Recent rhetoric from the Nationals indicates they are likely to abandon net zero, which may put them at odds with the Liberals if the latter’s concurrent review concludes that the best path out of electoral wilderness is to adopt credible climate policies.
The growing rift within the Coalition reflects broader tensions about its identity and electoral strategy. The Nationals are under pressure to stave off rising support for minor parties on their right. The Liberals face a balancing act between appeasing their conservative base and retaining appeal among moderate and urban voters—who abandoned the party in droves at the last election.
The combined impact of possible defections, leadership instability, and diverging policy positions has cast uncertainty over the Coalition’s ability to present a unified platform; and once again, speculation is rife around whether the Liberal National Coalition will split for a second time.
If the Coalition’s aim is to be permanently relegated to electoral oblivion, they are on the right path.
