Key Takeaways: Coalition Turmoil
- Coalition Split: For the second time in eight months, the Nationals have split from the Liberals, this time over the Government's hate crimes bill.
- Shadow Ministry Resignations: The entire Nationals frontbench, including leader David Littleproud, resigned from Sussan Ley's shadow ministry.
- One Nation Surge: A recent Newspoll shows One Nation at 22% primary vote, overtaking the Coalition (21%) and putting regional seats at risk.
- Leadership Challenges: Both Sussan Ley and David Littleproud face terminal leadership positions, with Angus Taylor now the likely challenger for the Liberal leadership.
- Crossbench Move: The Nationals have been relegated to the crossbench, forcing the Liberals to fill all shadow ministry roles from their own diminished cohort.
The federal Coalition is once again in disarray. For the second time in 8 months, the Nationals have split from the Liberals – this time over support for the Government’s hate crimes bill.
After three Nationals frontbenchers were removed for breaching cabinet solidarity by crossing the floor against their Liberal colleagues, the remaining Nationals frontbench resigned en masse from Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s shadow ministry.
This included the Leader of the Nationals David Littleproud, stating that the Coalition is now forced “into an untenable position that can no longer continue”. Mr Littleproud later went further in a statement, “Sussan Ley has put protecting her own leadership ahead of maintaining the Coalition”.
These are extraordinary comments from the Nationals, in effect instructing their ‘former’ senior Coalition partner on who its leader should be. A paradox, given the Nationals’ own insistence that they are a sovereign party whose decision-making is not beholden to the Liberals.
It is difficult to believe that the Nationals’ decision to split is not partly attributed to the surge in One Nation support. Nationals MPs are in survival mode as their base erodes in their regional and rural seats, where One Nation is strongest. A January Newspoll put One Nation on a primary vote of 22%, for the first time overtaking the Coalition at 21% – the Coalition’s worst primary vote by far.
This recent saga, coupled with the splintering of support to One Nation, represents perhaps the most serious crisis facing the political right in Australia.
Arguably, this split – potentially a prolonged split – is in the best interests of both parties. The Nationals face pressure on their right flank, and the Liberals must regain centrist metropolitan seats to have any prospect of winning government. A dichotomy in strategy, where a shared platform would have likely hindered both parties in their respective constituencies.
What is clear is that the leaderships of both Sussan Ley and David Littleproud are terminal. Some Liberal MPs have stated they refuse to serve in a Coalition where the Nationals are led by Littleproud. It is likely a new Nationals leader is required to rebuild that bridge.
For Ley, it is now irretrievable, even though she was not the primary cause of the Coalition split. Expect a challenge soon, as leadership contenders Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor canvassed support for a tilt.
Both from the Liberals’ right faction, this would have divided the faction’s backing between the two contenders.
Hastie has since withdrawn, conceding he does not have the numbers, leaving Taylor in the box seat.
Taylor was defeated by Ley 29 to 25 votes in the leadership election last year.
In the meantime, Ley must replace the 11 Nationals who resigned from the shadow ministry, with all members now required to come from the Liberal cohort, which was diminished following the last election. The Nationals will be relegated to the crossbench.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to be under pressure coming into the new year, copping criticism for holding out on calling a royal commission into antisemitism and social cohesion. Albanese eventually backflipped while also facing the Coalition’s demands that parliament be recalled.
Ley was on the front foot for much of January, and after the Coalition secured amendments from Labor to the hate crimes bill, this should have been a clear victory for her. Instead, her leadership once again hangs in the balance.
