After two and a half years, 3 Redistributions and a failed referendum, Australia is heading back to the polls on the 3rd of May. With the polls currently indicating that we are heading for another Hung Parliament.
There are a lot of similarities playing out for this election, with a Labor Party being dragged further to the left and a Liberal/National Coalition being dragged further to the right, meaning that we are getting an election that is all about the base, bout the base, bout the base (Ok… I’ll stop now).
With so much to play out and to play for, let’s look at where we stand:
The 2022 Election gave the Australian Labor Party, under Anthony Albanese, their best result since Kevin Rudd back in 2007. However, it should be noted that this was also their worst performance in terms of Primary Vote in its history, with its share of Primary Vote dropping by -0.76 to 32.58%. So how were they able to get a majority in this current climate?
The first reason, a relatively minor issue for the ALP in the current political climate, is that one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Primary Vote dip was the Australian Greens, who vote went up by 1.85PP to 12.25%. Considering that 80% of Greens preferences end up back with the ALP, this doesn’t end up damaging the TPP position significantly.
The second reason, much more significantly, was the rise of the Teal Independents, backed by Climate 200. This grouping of “Independent” MPs, backed by climate activist Simon Holmes-a-Court, ended up taking 6 seats off the Liberal Party, in a campaign aimed at trying to win the Centre Vote.
The net result was a loss of 19 seats from the Coalition, but only 9 of those seats going to Labor, with a total of 7 being won by Independents and 3 by the Greens, meaning that the Coalition were left with their lowest seat count as a percentage since the Coalition won power for the first time all the way back in 1949.
Since the 2022 Election, things have gotten than much harder for the Coalition, starting with 4 fewer seats than what they came out of the 2022 election with.
The Labor Party retain their count of 77 seats but there have been changes within this, along with the pick-up of Aston and the Redistribution of Bennelong.
For the Independents, they had one other loss, being the abolished seat of North Sydney, which had been covered extensively within The Post and saw the end of Kylea Tink’s tenure in parliament.
As with any Federal Election, the States will have their own stories to play, with their own narratives and issues. This will influence the result in very different ways.
New South Wales – The Fault Lines appear to have been drawn
White the Coalition appear to be making a gain based on the previous election, it is only a small gain of 1.5PP on the Primary Vote and a 2PP gain on 2PP. With Bennelong already notionally Liberal, the only seat that this would then deliver for the Liberal Party would be Gilmore, on the NSW South Coast. However, this is the favourite to blow out, as a community backlash around offshore wind farms, coupled with popular former NSW Minister Andrew Constance staging a political comeback, means that the Liberal Party are on track to win the seat easily. In play will be Robertson (based on the Central Coast), Paterson (North of Newcastle) and Parramatta.
The second story to play out in New South Wales will be the battle of the Liberal Party against the Teals. On the current swing, the Liberal Party do stand a chance to win back Mackellar from Dr Sophie Scamps. However, they are under intense pressure to hold Bradfield. Paul Fletcher’s retirement means that the benefit of incumbency is gone, with Nicolette Boele running against Gisele Kapterian. The other fascinating piece of this story will be Berowra, where Julian Leeser is under pressure from Tina Brown the former Editor-In-Chief of this paper.
One race that shouldn’t be ignore is the division of Fowler, one of the few negative stories for Labor back in 2022. Kristina Kenneally’s tilt for Federal Parliament failed again, this time at the hands of former Liberal Party member-turned Independent Dai Le. The Labor Party demonstrated their complete ineptness when it came to parachuting candidates, with Kenneally’s run from Scotland Island scuppered by one of the most popular local personalities in the Fairfield, Liverpool and Cabramatta area.
Expected Seat Changes – Gilmore (To Liberal Party)
In Play – Robertson (LAB vs LIB), Mackellar (IND vs LIB), Bradfield (LIB vs IND) Berowra (LIB vs IND), Fowler (IND VS LAB), Patterson (LAB vs LIB).
Victoria – The Battle of the East
The fortunes of Labor retaining or losing majority status could well be decided by the outcome of East Melbourne, where the Liberal Party stands to make the most gains. 2022 was a disaster for the Liberal Party in what is a traditional blue-ribbon area for them, losing a number of seats to the Independents and Labor, along with further losses from redistributions.
Currently, there is a predicted 4.0% 2PP swing to the Liberal Party in Victoria, which would deliver Aston, Chisolm and McEwen straight off the bat for the Liberal Party. Even with Menzies and Deakin sitting as an almost-perfect line-ball after the election, the Liberal party is expected to retain these two seats. The narrative continues for the Liberal Party with Bruce and Dunkley an outside chance. But, like within Sydney, The Liberal Party will be hell-bent on winning their two crown jewels back in Goldstein and Kooyong from the Teal Independents. Both Teals (Zoe Daniels and Monique) Ryan have had their problems within their seats and these two seats will be critical for the Liberal Party to win
While the Liberal Party will be focused on East Melbourne, Labor are also on the defensive with two seats against the Greens, being Macnamara and Wills. Both these seats have experienced significant gentrification and are now in play for the Greens to have a serious tilt at. Labor can ill-afford to lose more seats to the Greens if they are to ensure that they can stay in reach of Government. Macnamara will be one of the more fun seats to watch, given that this is a genuine Tri-Cornered Contest.
There is one seat to keep a very close eye on within this election and that is the seat of Wannon, where former minister Dan Tehan is under pressure from former Radio Presenter and Teal Candidate Alex Dyson. In what is normally an ultra safe seat, Dan Tehan is under pressure to retain.
Expected Seat Changes – Aston (To Liberal Party), Chisholm (To Liberal Party), McEwen (To Liberal Party)
In Play – Bruce (LAB vs LIB), Dunkley (LAB vs LIB), Goldstein (IND vs LIB), Kooyong (IND vs LIB), Macnamara (LAB vs LIB vs GRN), Wills (LAB vs GRN)
Queensland – An Unusually Quiet Election, except for the Brisbane River
For all the success that the ALP had back in 2022, one of the issues that was papered over from the last election was their poor performance in Queensland, which saw the Labor Party reduced to just 5 seats. However, it does appear that the fault lines have been drawn in the Sunshine State and we look set to have arguably the quietest election from Queensland in living memory. The current lay of the line shows almost no movement, especially as the previous State Labor Government was voted out, meaning that there isn’t as much pent-up anger in the state. This means that there are only 3 seats in play, being the 3 seats currently held by the Greens in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan, with all three running along the Brisbane River. While all three are technically 3-cornered contests, only Griffiths appears to be the most likely to stay where it is, while the other two seats could go in any direction.
Expected Seat Changes – None as the seats are too close to call
In Play – Ryan (GRN vs LIB), Brisbane (GRN vs LIB vs LAB), Griffiths (GRN vs LAB vs LIB)
South Australia – Not expected to play a big part…
The last federal election saw some very significant movement in South Australia, with the Liberal Party finally losing Boothby and coming within a whisker of losing Stuart. With a small swing expected back to the Liberal Party this time around, it is unlikely that we will see any change occur.
Expected Seat Change – None. Status Quo currently expected:
In Play – Sturt (LIB vs LAB), Boothby (LAB vs LIB)
Western Australia – The Ghost of Mark McGowan continues to haunt the Liberal Party
After dominating WA Politics for so long, the Liberal Party have been ripped apart in every election (state and federal) since the COVID Days and, while there is expected to be a move back to the Liberal Party as part of a notion correction, the gap is so big that this will remain a Labor-Dominated State.
The most fascinating story from this election will be the new division of Bullwinkel, which has been estimated with a margin to Labor of 3.2%. But with the swing back to the Liberal Party, this is now positioned as a Line-Ball Seat and critical for both parties trying to find the last remaining seats as the counts get late-on in the evening.
The 2nd seat to watch will be the Teal vs Liberal battle for Curtin. For a long time, this was the seat that typified the Liberal Party strength in WA, but after losing this seat to the Teals in 2022, the Liberal Party will be desperate to win this back.
The final seat in play is the Division of Tangney. While the swing back would normally be enough to deliver the seat, the expected Sophomore Surge may keep Labor in control of this seat.
Expected Seat Change – None. But there are some very tight seats in play
In Play – Bullwinkel (LAB vs LIB), Curtin (IND vs LIB), Tangney (LAB vs LIB)
Tasmania – The Apple Island about to break tradition
Tasmania loves to throw up unexpected results, especially with the trend of 1-terming MP’s within Bass and Braddon over the last few election cycles. However, this time, there is expected to be quite a bit of stability across the seats, except for Lyon, where the retirement of their MP, coupled with a solid swing, looks likely to deliver the seat to the Liberal Party
Expected Seat Change – Lyon (To Liberal Party)
In Play – None.
The Territories – Status Quo?
While the ACT is held lock-and-key by Labor, there is a small change that Lingiari could be in play. Normally a safe Labor Seat, the growth of the CLP within the remote regions of the Northern Territory means that Lingiari is now starting to position itself as a possible surprise seat. It is not expected to see a change, but funnier things have happened…
In Play – None
The Territories – Lingiari (LAB vs CLP)
Where does that leave the current numbers?
Off the likely changes, the Coalition will be expected to make a Net Gain of 5 seats (Gilmore, Aston, Chisholm, McEwen, Lyons). All of these gains will be off Labor, meaning that the ALP would drop from 77 to 72, while the Coalition would come back to 60.
We then have 9 Direct 2PP battles between Labor and the Coalition, 7 Races between one of the two major parties and an independent (6 against the Coalition and 1 against Labor), and 4 seats where the Greens are in play (2 are tri-cornered, 1 against Labor and 1 against the Coalition)
With such a large crossbench, coupled with seats in battle, we could see a situation where both major parties end up with a seat count in the 60’s. At this current stage, the Australian Labor Party would be best placed to form a Minority Government, but it does look like that they will need the support of the Greens plus a handful from the crossbench to guarantee confidence and supply.
We could be seeing 2010 all over again…
