With Nicolette Boele finally taking her seat in parliament, the Liberals who were once the dominant force in the North Shore are now relegated to a rump. Adding in a 6% swing against Julian Leeser in Berowra, it is dire straits.
But is it conceivable that Labor—the party formerly of the working class—will become the new hegemony in the affluent North Shore?
Berowra ended up being a surprise not many pundits saw coming, turning ultra-marginal for the first time in 56 years. This is a far cry from the heydays of Liberal stalwart Philip Ruddock holding the seat with 69% at one point.
Notwithstanding limited resources and campaign presence—with some booths on election day left unstaffed—amazingly, Labor won the overall on-the-day votes and won every booth up the T9 Northern line, barring one.
Although the final contest in Bradfield was between the Liberals and independent, the AEC will conduct a two-party preferred (2PP) between the Liberals and Labor, as it does in all seats. While my preliminary analysis has Labor slightly behind at around 49%, cast our memory back to when Liberal Brendan Nelson was the Member for Bradfield, his 2PP was over 70%.
Labor’s first preferences in the Senate were 34.9% and 36.5% respectively in Berowra and Bradfield, with the Liberals on 36.4% and 38.4%. Labor would gain these seats if the Senate results and preference flows were replicated.
Perusing across Sydney: Warringah and Wentworth, seats once held by Liberal Prime Ministers, the AEC has Labor ahead in the 2PP at 54.5% and 50.6% respectively. While these blue-ribbon seats have been trending against the conservatives over the past decade, they never fell until Zali Steggall cracked the blue wall in 2019. The teals winning Mackellar, North Sydney and Wentworth in 2022 was fait accompli. Flipping to Labor would be the coup de grâce.
But then again can Labor really win these once heartland Liberal seats?
Demographic shifts will only increase the Labor vote with time. As more apartments are built along the T1 North Shore and T9 Northern lines, younger generations and renters will move in, expanding the progressive vote. Bradfield and Berowra are ethnically-diverse, with many suburbs containing some of the highest population of people with Chinese ancestry in the country—this cohort continued its trend to Labor that began in 2022. Berowra, however, contains a sizable semi-rural area with a rusted-on conservative vote that would be difficult to dislodge.
Recent polls show that the perception of the Liberals being better economic managers is no longer true. Labor is now a socially progressive, but economically and fiscally responsible party. Berowra and Bradfield resembles this ideology. Sydney’s northern suburbs no longer feel the Liberals’ fervent denial of climate change and zealot pursuit of culture wars bear any resemblance to their politics.
When reflecting on the campaign, the Labor candidate for Berowra, Benson Koschinski, said, “Our best result ever for Labor at this election is a continuation of this long-term trend towards majority support for our party in this electorate.”
This trend has come to bear in neighbouring Bennelong. Labor has won every Lane Cove booth, with all except one over 60% 2PP—previously unthinkable in this once Liberal bastion.
Sydney’s northern suburbs have long been taken for granted by one political party. Recently we have shown our abhorrence to career politicians, and aspiration for genuine representation. In 2028, mounting a concerted campaign in Bradfield and Berowra might come to fruition, more so in Bradfield.
Boele is in danger at the next election; not from the Liberals but from Labor potentially leapfrogging into second position, meaning Boele’s preferences are distributed instead.
For Labor to stand a chance, and perhaps also in the overlapping state seats which have never been held by any other but the Liberal Party, Labor has to do the leg work now. They must find and support genuine, credible community-based candidates.
