After two and a half years, 3 Redistributions and a failed referendum, Australia is heading back to the polls on the 3rd of May. With the polls currently indicating that we are heading for another Hung Parliament.
There are a lot of similarities playing out for this election, with a Labor Party being dragged further to the left and a Liberal/National Coalition being dragged further to the right, meaning that we are getting an election that is all about the base, bout the base, bout the base (Ok… I’ll stop now).
With so much to play out and to play for, let’s look at where we stand:
The 2022 Election gave the Australian Labor Party, under Anthony Albanese, their best result since Kevin Rudd back in 2007. However, it should be noted that this was also their worst performance in terms of Primary Vote in its history, with its share of Primary Vote dropping by -0.76 to 32.58%. So how were they able to get a majority in this current climate?
The first reason, a relatively minor issue for the ALP in the current political climate, is that one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Primary Vote dip was the Australian Greens, who vote went up by 1.85PP to 12.25%. Considering that 80% of Greens preferences end up back with the ALP, this doesn’t end up damaging the TPP position significantly.
The second reason, much more significantly, was the rise of the Teal Independents, backed by Climate 200. This grouping of “Independent” MPs, backed by climate activist Simon Holmes-a-Court, ended up taking 6 seats off the Liberal Party, in a campaign aimed at trying to win the Centre Vote.
The net result was a loss of 19 seats from the Coalition, but only 9 of those seats going to Labor, with a total of 7 being won by Independents and 3 by the Greens, meaning that the Coalition were left with their lowest seat count as a percentage since the Coalition won power for the first time all the way back in 1949.
Since the 2022 Election, things have gotten than much harder for the Coalition, starting with 4 fewer seats than what they came out of the 2022 election with.
The Labor Party retain their count of 77 seats but there have been changes within this, along with the pick-up of Aston and the Redistribution of Bennelong.
For the Independents, they had one other loss, being the abolished seat of North Sydney, which had been covered extensively within The Post and saw the end of Kylea Tink’s tenure in parliament.
As with any Federal Election, the States will have their own stories to play, with their own narratives and issues. This will influence the result in very different ways.
New South Wales – The Fault Lines appear to have been drawn
White the Coalition appear to be making a gain based on the previous election, it is only a small gain of 1.5PP on the Primary Vote and a 2PP gain on 2PP. With Bennelong already notionally Liberal, the only seat that this would then deliver for the Liberal Party would be Gilmore, on the NSW South Coast. However, this is the favourite to blow out, as a community backlash around offshore wind farms, coupled with popular former NSW Minister Andrew Constance staging a political comeback, means that the Liberal Party are on track to win the seat easily. In play will be Robertson (based on the Central Coast), Paterson (North of Newcastle) and Parramatta.
The second story to play out in New South Wales will be the battle of the Liberal Party against the Teals. On the current swing, the Liberal Party do stand a chance to win back Mackellar from Dr Sophie Scamps. However, they are under intense pressure to hold Bradfield. Paul Fletcher’s retirement means that the benefit of incumbency is gone, with Nicolette Boele running against Gisele Kapterian. The other fascinating piece of this story will be Berowra, where Julian Leeser is under pressure from Tina Brown the former Editor-In-Chief of this paper.
One race that shouldn’t be ignore is the division of Fowler, one of the few negative stories for Labor back in 2022. Kristina Kenneally’s tilt for Federal Parliament failed again, this time at the hands of former Liberal Party member-turned Independent Dai Le. The Labor Party demonstrated their complete ineptness when it came to parachuting candidates, with Kenneally’s run from Scotland Island scuppered by one of the most popular local personalities in the Fairfield, Liverpool and Cabramatta area.
Expected Seat Changes – Gilmore (To Liberal Party)
In Play – Robertson (LAB vs LIB), Mackellar (IND vs LIB), Bradfield (LIB vs IND) Berowra (LIB vs IND), Fowler (IND VS LAB), Patterson (LAB vs LIB).
