The 2022 Federal Election started a period of psephological disruption for the region of Northern Sydney that has led to the announcement of a much-needed redistribution of seats within New South Wales.
With the current electoral Role for NSW sitting at about 5.5 million, a 47-seat state would result in an average enrolment of around 117,000, while a 46-seat state would result in an average enrolment of about 120,000.
Given that the population of NSW is in decline, coupled with the already low quota size, the decision from the Commission was straightforward in reducing the number of seats for NSW from 47 to 46. With that decision out of the way, we then move on to changing the seat boundaries.
While the ideal situation is to have all seats at the average size, where is the NSW Redistribution likely to have the biggest impact? Northern Sydney will become one of the centrepieces of the redistribution. Given the previous history and 2022 election, this will make this redistribution particularly fascinating.
All citizens and political parties are allowed to make submissions as to how they want the redistribution to occur. The commission will consider these submissions but is not necessarily beholden to them.
The Liberal Party has acknowledged the issue around the lack of a quota in Northern Sydney and has proposed merging Warringah and North Sydney into one, renaming it North Sydney (given its status as a federation seat).
In a surprise move, the Labor Party proposes redrawing North Sydney around Willoughby, Lane Cove and Hunters Hill, effectively expanding all seats westwards.
The Nationals are primarily aligned with the Liberal Party around Northern Sydney. However, the only change is that the merged seat between North Sydney and Warringah will be named Warringah instead of North Sydney.
The Greens have proposed abolishing Bradfield, with Berowra expanding South along the Pacific Highway, Mackellar expanding into St Ives and North Turramurra and North Sydney Expanding North to take Chatswood.
The Teal MPs have been very light on detail in terms of what they want to see happen. Sophie Scamps only suggestion was shifting Mackellar’s Boundary South into Warringah, with minimal detail about the impact towards other seats. Zali Steggall would shift Warringah South and West into North Sydney. Kylea Tink requested that North Sydney be retained but with no detail as to how this could be achieved.
One big shock from this process is the lack of a submission from Nicolette Boele. Marketing herself as “The Shadow MP for Bradfield”, Boele’s lack of a submission, especially for Bradfield, is a significant surprise given that the profile of Bradfield is likely to change significantly.
So, what is the likely impact?
The consensus is that the need to expand Mackellar South (and it will more than likely shift south) resulting in one of Warringah or North Sydney being abolished. This would likely pull Bradfield and Berowra South-East and pull Bennelong East.
All eyes on this will then focus on what the Teal MPs do, especially between Kylea Tink and Zali Steggall, while Nicolette Boele continues to pressure Bradfield. Three into two won’t go, and someone will have to miss out.
For the Liberal Party, this confirms that they will definitely need a change of tact around who runs going forward. These redistributions will strengthen the Teal Position in the area, meaning that the Liberal Party would need to change tact around how they select their candidates and campaign.
