On May 3, Australian voters delivered Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a thumping re-election—some dubbing it “a win for the ages”. Labor has won 94 seats, compared to 43 for the Coalition, which is the largest seat share Labor has ever attained. The last time Labor secured such a win was in 1987 when Bob Hawke obtained 86 seats.
By and large, voters turned away from the type of conservatism and right-wing Trumpian rhetoric that was out of touch with mainstream “sensible centrist” Australia. The rejection of Peter Dutton and the Liberal Party was resolute.
With Dutton ousted from his seat of Dickson, the newly appointed Liberal leader, Sussan Ley—a moderate—has vowed to move the party back to the sensible centre. As the first female elected to the leadership of the Liberal Party, perhaps this is the start of bringing back the voting bloc of professional women which has increasingly abandoned the party throughout the last decade.
In our neck of the woods, the results in Bradfield and Berowra show there is a pathway for the Liberals to govern if they reacquaint with the centre.
At the time of writing, in Bradfield, Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian is indicatively ahead of second-time teal candidate Nicolette Boele by a mere 8 votes. A recount and perhaps by-election will determine the final outcome.
Bradfield was the teal seat to watch on election night. Boele was a candidate who turned Bradfield marginal for the first time in 2022, and who has spent 3 years as a self-described “shadow member” campaigning throughout that period. Her victory was expected to be a foregone conclusion.
By contrast, Kapterian had 5 months to campaign, and yet she muted the swing to only 2.5%, which is far less than the hefty swings seen in other metropolitan seats. Kapterian is a moderate, she is highly qualified, and is still in contention to be the first female representative for Bradfield. Perhaps these attributes limited the swing from this increasingly distant voting bloc.
With another moderate, Tim Wilson, winning back Goldstein from teal independent, Zoe Daniel, surely the Liberals must understand this is the pathway to victory. Or is this a wider trend showing that the teal independent movement reached its high watermark in 2022?
In next door Berowra, another moderate Liberal has retained his seat, despite a 6% swing. While Julian Leeser is on notice, neighbouring seats turned far more heavily against right-faction Liberal candidates. The splitting of the Liberal vote by community independent candidate, Tina Brown, has delivered Berowra into ultra-marginal territory for the first time in 56 years.
Delusional pontifications from the conservative faction that the Liberals must move further to the right show they are still in denial that credible moderates softened swings in their seats.
The Liberal Party must heed that appealing to the fringe right will lead to permanent electoral oblivion. With the Nationals’ recent tantrums diminishing its influence in the Coalition, the Liberals cannot squander this opportunity to “re-centre” and rebuild.
