Political Analysis: Key Points
- Leadership Upheaval: Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader after a decisive 34–17 ballot victory following the party's slump in polls.
- Identity Crisis: The party is currently torn between reclaiming centrist "teal" seats and defending its right flank against a surging One Nation.
- Surging Rivalry: Recent polling showed One Nation (28%) outperforming the Coalition (17%), prompting MPs to force a leadership change.
- The Farrer Barometer: Taylor’s first test is the Farrer by-election, a five-way contest involving the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation, and high-profile independents.
- South Australian Risk: Polling at 14% in South Australia, the Liberals risk failing to elect a single member if current One Nation momentum (24%) holds.
- Strategic Gamble: By consolidating the right-wing base to rebound in polls, Taylor risks further alienating the "small-l" liberal metropolitan voters.
- The Path Forward: To challenge Labor effectively, the party must pivot from internal dysfunction to addressing economic issues like inflation and cost-of-living.
After several months of floundering in the polls, the Liberal Party moved to replace its first female leader, Sussan Ley.
In the end, it was not even close – Angus Taylor secured a decisive 34–17 victory over Ley in the leadership ballot.
Taylor inherits a party in disarray, with a muddled identity – unsure whether to take the fight to Labor and the teals in the centre or to defend its right flank against a surging One Nation. Ley, upon becoming leader, declared that she believed “government is ultimately formed in the sensible centre”. Yet even as she made those remarks, she presided over a party that abandoned its commitment to net zero emissions and allowed the National Party to drag the Coalition’s agenda further to the right.
Conservative voters, disillusioned by what they saw as a Liberal Party in the grip of an identity crisis and two Coalition partners unable to work together, began looking for another option on the right – namely, One Nation.
With one poll showing the Coalition on 17% and One Nation on 28%, Liberal MPs concluded that a change in leadership was unavoidable.
Angus Taylor, from the party’s right faction, will need to define the party and lock down its identity – something Sussan Ley was either unable or not given the time to do. Does he try to appeal to centrist metropolitan seats, of which the party won just 9 out of 88 at the last election? Or does he move the Liberal Party further to the right in an attempt to regain the cohort that has drifted to One Nation?
Taylor’s first major challenge will be the Farrer by-election, after Ley announced she will quit parliament. A five-way contest may be looming, with One Nation, the Nationals and the Liberals all expected to run candidates. Independent Michelle Milthorpe, who achieved a 20 per cent primary vote at the last election, has confirmed she will run. Helen Dalton, the state MP for Murray, whose electorate overlaps with parts of Farrer, is also weighing up a tilt.
Alongside the South Australian election in late March, the Farrer by-election will serve as a barometer of how the One Nation vote translates at the ballot box. Recent polling in South Australia shows One Nation at 24%, with the Liberals trailing at 14%. If those figures hold on election day, it is conceivable the Liberals could fail to elect a single member to the South Australian parliament.
Taylor’s recent rhetoric suggests he is seeking to consolidate the party’s right flank, and there are signs of a modest rebound in the polls. A poll conducted since he assumed the leadership shows the Coalition back ahead of One Nation at 23.5% and 21.5% respectively.
However, it is worth remembering that in consolidating the right, the Liberals risk losing what remains of their small-l liberal constituency, much of which has already abandoned the party in recent elections.
The past few months have seen attention focussed on dysfunction within the Liberal Party. With this reset, the party will now need to present a credible opposition. Labor, while dominant, is not invulnerable. Inflation remains stubborn, interest rates have risen, and cost-of-living pressures are eroding goodwill. The government’s economic management will be tested in the year ahead.
To make inroads, the Liberals have to stop talking about themselves.
