A Political Realignment: Is One Nation Now a Major Contender in Australian Politics?

Since her election to federal parliament in 1996, Pauline Hanson and One Nation have been a fixture of Australian politics.

Apart from achieving 22.7% at the 1998 Queensland election, the party has not matched that level of support until now.

At the 2025 federal election, One Nation received 6.4% of the national vote. When opinion polling first showed One Nation breaking through 10% in September 2025, some dismissed it as an anomaly. However, as polling continued to show its support rising, alarm bells started ringing within the Coalition, and increased media attention filtered into the public discourse.

At the start of 2026, the dam wall broke. One Nation overtook the Coalition for the first time since Pauline Hanson founded the party. With support surging in regional areas and eroding the Nationals’ base; concerned about their electoral prospects, the Nationals briefly split from the Liberals for the second time in nine months.

Further polling showing the Liberals languishing below 20% proved the final straw. Sussan Ley was replaced as leader by Angus Taylor shortly after.

The substantial increase in One Nation support can be attributed to several factors.

First, votes for the Libertarian Party, Trumpet of Patriots, and other parties to the right of the Liberals have largely consolidated behind One Nation, contributing around 4%.

Since the election, much of the focus has been on disunity within the Coalition. This instability has driven an exodus of voters seeking a comparatively stable option on the political right. While Liberal voters may strongly disagree with aspects of One Nation’s platform, particularly its stance on multiculturalism, Pauline Hanson’s messaging has remained relatively consistent over the decades. In contrast to the Coalition’s internal conflict, One Nation has emerged as a viable alternative.

Previously, One Nation may have been a bridge too far for many conservative voters. As its support grew, political discourse shifted. Polling showing a substantial proportion of the electorate intending to back the party eroded the stigma, giving other hesitant voters greater social licence to follow suit.

The recent South Australian election highlighted widespread voter disillusionment, with 43% of the electorate opting for non-major party candidates – the clearest indication yet of political disenfranchisement.

In regional areas, One Nation has largely cannibalised the Liberal vote. While Labor celebrated an historic landslide victory, the results also exposed underlying weaknesses in working-class outer suburban areas. In Adelaide’s northern suburbs, where ABS data show the median income is lower than the state average, substantial swings occurred against Labor, with One Nation receiving over 30% in many electorates. Amid cost-of-living pressures and limited perceived solutions, voters in this cohort abandoned the major parties.

There was substantial interest in the South Australian election, amid scepticism over whether One Nation’s support would translate at the polls – a scepticism that has now been proven misplaced. As counting continues, the party stands at 22% and may win up to four seats, ahead of the Liberals at 19%. For the first time, One Nation has secured a lower house seat outside of Queensland.

Questions remain, however, about the durability of this support. One Nation’s next major test will be the Farrer by-election in May.

Part 2 of this series, in the next edition, will further examine the impact of One Nation on the major parties.