The Kiama by-election held on 13 September offered a rare yet valuable glimpse into the likely direction of the upcoming NSW state election, due in less than 18 months.
By-elections are usually a litmus test on the incumbent government. With a primary vote swing to Labor—an impressive feat, as there ordinarily is a swing against the government—and a victory on two-party preferred of around 60%, Premier Chris Minns and the Labor government have much cause to celebrate.
Although the rhetoric frames this as a thumping win for Labor and a clear rejection of the Liberals at the ballot box; it is worth noting that prior to 2011, Labor’s primary vote was typically over 50%, whereas the by-election yielded 37.5%.
Yet the underlying reality remains—Opposition Leader Mark Speakman and the Coalition must regroup and refocus ahead of the March 2027 state election if they hope to avoid further losses, let alone mount a credible bid for government. If the Kiama results were to be replicated, the Coalition could lose upwards of 15 seats, leaving it with just over 20 in the 93 seat Legislative Assembly.
Indeed, recent polling affirms that NSW Labor is headed for an historic victory, with Liberal heartland seats—including Epping, Lane Cove, North Shore, Wahroonga and Willoughby—at serious risk, particularly amongst centrist voters.
The aftermath of the by-election has stirred up discourse of a possible leadership challenge against Speakman. Names mentioned as possible contenders include Member for Vaucluse Kellie Sloane, Member for Wahroonga Alister Henskens, and Member for Lane Cove Anthony Roberts.
Sloane, who is seen as a future leader of the Liberal Party, has since publicly backed Speakman’s leadership and ruled out a challenge. With Henskens and Roberts both not having the numbers, Speakman is the only option for now.
The federal Coalition’s deepening internal divisions are doing little to bolster Speakman’s prospects in NSW. Recently, senior federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie threatened to quit the frontbench over the party’s commitment to net zero emissions—a move no doubt signalling his leadership ambitions.
Hastie is far from alone. A growing number of Coalition MPs are pushing to abandon net zero and appear determined to reignite the climate wars—a battle the electorate, particularly Sydney’s North Shore, firmly rejected at the last federal election.
The demotion of Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has further fuelled the chaos. Her sacking from the shadow ministry has made her a martyr for the right, further destabilising Sussan Ley’s leadership.
Coalition MPs appear determined to flaunt the political adage “disunity is death”. Perhaps the best path forward for the Liberal Party is a formal split—for the conservative faction to break away to form a new party. Or possibly the few remaining moderate Liberals aligning with the Teal independents to create a new centrist alternative. That way the opposition, whoever they may be, can be focussed on representing Australians instead of constantly waging internecine warfare.
What is clear, however, is that turmoil and instability within the Liberal Party is far from over. Speculation around the leadership of Mark Speakman and
Sussan Ley continue to swirl. It is increasingly likely the party will head into both the next NSW and federal elections with new leaders.
